We’re still not out of the woods yet but civil unrest across many parts of the globe led
to many wondering about the long-term impact of crowds & Covid.
Overall, the markets are staying focused on the recovery and there’s still optimism that the year will end with the markets fully in recovery mode. Unemployment is still high but not nearly as high it could be.
There were gains in healthcare, construction and manufacturing but nowhere near their normal levels. Retail and hospitality sectors were also up but it’s unclear if the upswing is due to the impact of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans.
Unemployment: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined to 13.3%*. Nonfarm payroll does not include farm workers, government employees, private households and non-profit employees.
*The real unemployment rate is actually higher than 13.3%. There was “misclassification error” due to how furloughed workers were classified in the data. The actual number for May may be as high 16.3%, which is still down from the April highs.
European Central Bank made an additional €600 bond purchase as part of its crisis
bond buying program, bringing its total to €1.3 trillion. Whether or not this is enough to
deal with the economic downturn, remains to be seen.
Exports out of Latin America are sharply down due to the pandemic. There was a
reduction in exports across the board. Exports between countries was down 8.6%,
between Latin America & 7.1% and between Latin America and the U.S. less than 1%.
Chile’s copper output serves as a barometer for the strength of the overall global
economy because of how many products need copper.
Why this matters: The country is the world’s largest producer of copper. Copper
exports were down 7.8% in April. May numbers have yet to be released.
Asian markets were up buoyed by the U.S. unemployment rate news but keep an eye
on how the markets react today due to the “misclassification” euro (see above).
While China exports eased, China crude imports were at an all-time high in May.
Many countries still have their borders closed due to the pandemic. The
economies are trying to determine how to manage the delicate balance of providing
immediate relief from the pandemic outbreak and investing for long-term growth.
Some numbers for people who like numbers:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 27,111 up 6.8% for the week
S&P 500 closed the week up 4.9% ending at 3,194
Nasdaq gained a bit more than the previous week (3.4%) ending at 9,814
MSCI EAFE closed at 1,847 up 7.07%